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巴菲特眼中的出海投资ForeignInv

2019/06/07 来源:和平信息港

导读

缺钙镁的症状有哪些怎么知道自己缺钙不怎么知道自己缺钙呢许多投资者都跟格隆汇平台反映希望能多看到价值投资的内容,为此我们特意组织力

缺钙镁的症状有哪些
怎么知道自己缺钙不
怎么知道自己缺钙呢

许多投资者都跟格隆汇平台反映希望能多看到价值投资的内容,为此我们特意组织力量按照问题由浅至深的顺序汇总并翻译了巴菲特及其挚友查理芒格近几年在各大公开场合回答的关于估值的问题。您即将看到的可能是史上全股神问答整理,希望对您有所帮助。

What's your opinion on investing in foreign stocks?

你对投资境外股票有什么看法?

We have a number of businesses that derive very significant percentages of their revenue from international operations. Coca-Cola earns 80% or more from their international operations; Gillette will earn two thirds or more from international operations, so we get a lot from outside the United States. It's a slight advantage to us having U.S.-domiciled companies. For instance, we get better treatment on the dividends if they are domestically based because of the way the U.S. tax laws go. But if Coca-Cola were domiciled in Amsterdam or if Gillette was in London, we would still be attracted to them to virtually the same degree we are now. We look at businesses domiciled outside this country--many don't meet our size requirements, but that's true here, too--but we have nothing against buying companies that are domiciled outside the United States. We will keep looking; we need to look everywhere with the kind of money we have today available for investment. Charlie?

我们很多业务的收益重头是来自于境外,可口可乐至少有80%的收益来自于海外业务,吉列的海外收益占到整体的2/3以上,由此可以看出我们在海外业务上受益良多,这使得我们面对那些依靠本土收益的企业时稍微占优。举例来说就是即使因为美国的税务法规我们可以在本土企业上获得更多的股利,但是即使可口可乐把主体产业迁移到阿姆斯特丹或者吉列迁到伦敦,我们仍然会被他们所吸引就如同现在一样。我们着眼于海外业务---有很多不符合我们的要求,但他们事实存在,此外我们在买入国外企业的时候几乎没有竞争对手,我们会继往开来,带着我们用于投资的资金来寻遍全球,Charlie有没有补充?

[CM: Again, we have a wonderful way of playing the rapid development of companies outside the United States. So far, we haven't seen anything that has attracted us as being better. If you can sell Coca-Cola, do you really want to get into steel in Malaysia or something?]

我想再重申一遍,我们对于管理迅速发展的海外企业非常有一套,到目前为止我们没有找到任何比之更具吸引力的投资方向,如果你卖掉可口可乐的话,难不成要投身马来西亚的钢铁产业之类的吗?

Some things travel very well, and some things don't. Gillette travels, Disney travels, McDonald's travels, Coke travels; See's candy doesn't travel as well. It might if you spent 50 years working on it, but it's not an easy thing to travel. Actually, candy bars themselves don't travel very well; if you look at the top-selling candy bars in France or in England or in Japan, you don't find the similarity you find in terms of the best-selling soft drinks or movies or fast food hamburgers or razor blades.

有些企业的全球化很成功,有些则差点意思,吉列、迪士尼、麦当劳、可口可乐都行销全球,但喜诗巧克力则不然,也许你对此倾注了五十年的心血,但它本身就不是一个适合全球化的商品,实际上糖果棒这种东西也确实是如此,如果你想知道在法国、英国和日本卖的的糖果棒是什么,是找不到一款像软饮料、电影、快餐汉堡抑或是剃须刀这类都拥有代表性品牌的产品的。

[CM: Except Snickers! (laughter) For some reason, Snickers.

除了士力架!(笑)从某种程度上来说士力架算一个~

Charlie's got a lot of experience. You may want to invest where we invest, but you don't want to eat where we eat. (laughter)

Charlie对此经验丰富,你可能会投资我们所投资的,但你却不想跟我们吃的一样(笑)

Source: BRK Annual Meeting 1997

Time: May 1997

来源:BRK1997年年会

时间:1997年5月

[Comments on investing in Europe]

关于在欧洲投资的一些看法

One disadvantage to buying a stock in the UK is that you have to report your holding once you reach the 3% level. So, for a stock with a $5 billion market cap, we’d have to report [and likely run the stock up] once we’d acquired only $150 million. But in the past, we’ve owned Guinness, which is now owned by Diageo, so this is not an overwhelming disadvantage. We’d be very comfortable owning many UK companies.

在英国买股票的一个不好的地方就是如果你持股比例大于3%你就得上报,对于一支市值50亿的公司,我们的持股超过1.5亿就得上报,但以前吉尼斯归我们的时候这就不是啥大不了的事,说起来以前拥有好多英国公司还是蛮舒坦的。

Incidentally, contrary to what’s been reported, we do not have to report a 5% position within 10 days [referring to reports in The Wall Street Journal and elsewhere that Berkshire would have to file on its recently disclosed purchase of Anheuser-Busch stock if it held more than 5% of the shares outstanding].

喔顺便说一下,与我们在英国所需要上报的比例相反,有其中的5%我们有一个十天的窗口期可以不立即上报。[根据华尔街和其它的一些企业和地方财经媒体公开的一些资料表明确实是像买入Anheuser-Busch公司的已发行股票的5%之后才需要上报]

[CM: Recently we’ve preferred the currencies of socialized Europe over the U.S. dollar. A queer occurrence...]

[近来我们偏爱欧洲社会主义国家在美元之外的货币流通业务,有点奇怪哈….]

I remember when I’d come back from Europe and couldn’t wait to convert my euros back to dollars.

我记得我从而欧洲回来的时候我迫不及待的把我的欧元换成美元。

Europe isn’t doing as badly as you might think. Its growth rate is lower than ours, but our population is expanding a lot faster, so on a per capital basis, the gap is not as wide as you’d think.

欧洲的发展情况也并不如你想象的那么糟,它们的经济增长率不如我们,但是我们的人口增长率明显快于他们。所以从人均资本上来看,两地之间的差距没有那么大

Source: BRK Annual Meeting 2005 Tilson Notes

Time: 2005

来源:2005年BRK年会Tilson笔记

时间:2005年

What are your requirements for investments outside the U.S.?

你对美国以外的投资有什么限定要求吗

We rule out any markets that aren’t big enough. We need to make investments in the hundreds-of-million-dollar-size range, so that rules out a lot of ansparency matters; the accounting doesn?’t matter so much to us. As long as we are able to value what?’s underneath of it, we?’ll invest. Remember though, that something like 53% of all the value of the public companies in the world is here in the U.S., so we are a big piece of the pie.

我们首先排除那些规模不够大的市场,我们需要投资的是那些亿元级别的市场,以这个标准将排除很大一部分。其次是透明度,我们对账单不是太感兴趣,只要我们能判断出它的潜在价值足够好,我们就会投资,要记住,全世界有大约53%的上市公司的价值就在美国本土,所以我们本身就是一块大蛋糕。

Source: BRK Annual Meeting 1999

Time: 1999

来源:1999年BRK年会

时间:1999

[RE: Declining U.S. Dollar]

美元贬值

We think the dollar, over time, unless policies change in a major way, will likely decline somewhat more against most major currencies. At one time, we backed this up with $22 billion in foreign currencies, but then the carry made that an expensive way to express that belief, so now we buy into companies that earn a lot in foreign currencies. It’s a factor, but not a 50% factor, in what we buy.

我们认为随着时间推移除非货币政策发生根本性改变否则美元的汇率将进一步下滑,曾经我们有220亿美元的外汇储备做保障,但是现在这个保证变得更昂贵,所以现在我们买入那些主要利润来源是海外市场的公司,这是一个重要考虑因素,但是还没到50%那么重要的程度。

We’re following policies in this country that will lead to a decline in the dollar – the fundamental forces are fairly strong.

我们正在遵循一个让美元贬值的政策,这“原力”还挺强大的。。。

We own one currency position right now that will surprise you – we’ll tell you about it next year.

我们当下拥有一个令人惊喜的很犀利的货币地位—明年再告诉你。

Munger: The inflation factor at Costco is zero. It’s perfectly amazing how well we’ve done so far.

Munger:在Costco的通货膨胀因素为0,这表示到目前为止我们做的相当不赖

Buffett: Look at oil going from $30 to $60 and the euro from 83 cents [per dollar] to $1.35, so the price of oil for Europeans has gone up very little – 25% vs. 100% for us. It’s easy to anchor on your own currency.

Buffett:看看从30刀上涨到60刀的原油价格还有从83美分涨到1.35刀的欧元汇率,可以看出原油价格对于欧洲来说只上涨了一点点。相对于我们来说就是25%和100%的对比,这很容易就把你的资金流套牢了。

You’ll have to think more about currency than you have. Around the world, others think about currencies, but the average American hasn’t had to.

所以你需要考虑的要比你现有的多,在全世界范围内的其他国家的人都在在这样想但是大部分美国人并没有

Source: BRK Annual Meeting 2007 Tilson Notes

Time: 2007

来源:2007年BRK年会Tilson笔记

时间:2007

When looking at other countries Mr. Buffett,do you look at the country’s overall financial status or do you look at the financials of that specific company in a foreign country? You mentioned investing in Korean companies – do you ever look at the state of the country you are investing in?

Buffett先生,当你在着眼于其他国家的市场时,你是看他们的整体财务情况还是一些比较有代表性的公司的具体财政情况?你提到了在韩国的一些公司的投资—你是调查过你所投资的国家的状况吗?

We care about the country where the company is run. There is a disadvantage being outside of the US. A few years ago we were looking to invest in either PetroChina or Yukos in Russia. We ended up picking PetroChina because the political situation was more stable. It turned out to be a good decision. I care about the country and the geopolitical environment I am investing e whole company was selling for $35 billion. It was selling for one-fourth of the price of Exxon, but was making profits equal to 80% of Exxon. I was reading the annual report one day and in it I saw a message from the Chairman saying that the company would pay out 45% of its profits as dividends. This was much more than any company like this, and I liked the reserves. If it were a US company, it would sell for $85 billion;it’s a good, solid company. I don’t understand the Chinese culture like I understand the US culture. However it said right in their annual report that they will payout 45% of their earnings as dividends, basically they say if they make money they will pay it out.

I invested $450 million and its now worth $3.5 billion. I decided I’d rather be in China than Russia.I liked the investment climate better in China. In July, the owner of Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky (at that time, the richest man in Russia) had breakfast with me and was asking for my consultation if they should expand into New York and if this was too onerous considering the SEC regulations. Four months later, Mikhail Khodorkovsky was in prison. Putin put him in. He took on Putin and lost. His decision on geopolitical thinking was wrong and now the company is finished.

PetroChina was the superior investment choice. 45% was a crazy amount of dividends to offer but China kept its word.

I am never quite as happy as I am in the US, because the laws are more uncertain elsewhere, but the point is to buy things cheap. Russia is just a bad geopolitical environment. On the other hand, China has kept their word on paying the dividends. In fact, when the dividends check comes in, it is calculated out 10 or so decimals, these guys keep their word. I don’t know the tax laws in China, but you can buy a good business cheap. At Berkshire Hathaway, you have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to move the needle. We have a problem of finding things worth investing in.

我们当然很在意一个公司所在的国家和地区,在美国之外的市场有一些劣势,消息,几年前我们想在中石油或者俄罗斯的Yukos石油投资,我们终选择了中石油因为中国的政治环境更加稳定,这也证明是一个正确的决策,这就是我关心我所投资的国家和地缘政治的原因。

整个公司以350亿美元的价格出售,这是Exxon市值的1/4,但所带来的利润是Exxon的80% ,我曾经读过他们的年报然后有一天我发现他们的董事长说公司愿意付出利润的45%来作为股利,消息,这可比一般公司出手大方,我也喜欢这一点,如果这是一个美国的公司可能就以850亿美元直接卖了。这是一个且稳定的公司,我并不像了解美国文化般了解中国文化。不过他的年报上说要把利润的45%作为股利,基本上这就代表着“挣多少花多少”,所以我投资了4.5亿美元然后现在已经增值到了35亿美元,所以相比俄罗斯我更愿意在中国投资。

我更喜欢中国的投资环境,Yukos的老板,Mikhail Khodorkovsky(当时俄罗斯富有的人)跟我吃了个早餐询问我他们是否应该把业务拓展到纽约以及美国证交所的税务政策是否太过严苛。结果四个月之后他就吃牢饭去了,还是普京亲自授意的,搭上普京然后玩完,看来他的地缘政治玩的不太溜,搞得现在公司也完蛋了。中石油就变成了投资,45%的收益作为股利确实挺牛的,消息,但他们说话算数。

不过还是美国的投资环境舒坦,因为它的法律法规不像其他地区那样有很多模棱两可的地方,重点是买入的时候比较便宜。而俄罗斯坏就坏在它的政治环境上,中国在支付股息上说话算数而且数目很精确,这些人确实守信用。我不了解中国的税务法规,我只知道在中国买入一个好生意确实很便宜。但在Berkshire Hathaway则不然,想看到些微成效就得付出好几百万美元,所以很难找到值得投资他们的理由。

Source: Student Visit 2007

URL:

Time: January 2007

来源:2007年学生来访

时间:2007年1月

1/8th of world is in India. Why aren’t you investing in India?

印度是一个大市场,全世界1/8的人口在印度,为什么您不在印度投资?

WB: That is a good question. We have connections there. In insurance, there are distinct restrictions at what we can do in India. As of yesterday, I agreed next March to go to India, because of what our Iscar business is doing there. India will grow, and Iscar belongs in every industrial country in world. We have good sized operation there. We don’t rule out India. Posco – they have big plans for India.

WB:这个问题问的不错,我们与印度有一些联系,处于保险起见,那里有一些对于我们本来能做的事情来说具有区别性的限制政策,昨天我也刚刚同意了明年三月去一趟印度去商讨一下Iscar公司在那里的业务,来促进印度的工业发展,Iscar公司在每一个工业国家都享有盛誉,我们在印度也即将大展拳脚,所以我们并没有把印度从商业计划中排除。连Posco也有意在印度玩一票大的。

CM: One trouble that India presents is that the government is causing paralysis, endless due process. Planning, approvals, zoning is hard. Wise founder of modern Singapore said that China will grow faster than India because government causes less paralysis. Countries are different, and while we kind of admire the democracy that causes the paralysis, we still don’t admire the paralysis.

CM:但是现在存在于印度的一个不利因素就是政府基本上处于瘫痪状态,没完没了的诉讼,计划,批文….简直一团糟,新加坡的一些明智的现代企业家觉得中国会比印度发展的更快,因为中国的政府和政治环境都很稳定,国家与国家之间不一样,即使我们对于民主的追求导致了一些类似的政治麻烦。但这不代表我们喜欢这些麻烦。

WB: Countries learn much from each other, and many have learned from USA. Maybe they can steal some ideas, and improve on us. We ought to figure out a lot of ways to do business in those countries. My preference is insurance which I understand. Both China and India do limit us right now, of what we can own and how much. Why put my managerial talent to work on something where we only own 20% vs 100%? But we remain interested because people in China and India will live better 20 yrs from now.

WB:国家与国家之间通过相互学习受益良多,相信美国也是其中被借鉴的比较多的一个,也许他们能偷到一些小主意,然后作用于我们,但我们应该想的更宽更远,寻求多种多样的与外国做生意的方法,就我目前的了解我更偏爱保险一些的方式,中国和印度都在试图限制我们的发展,限制我们能拥有的和拥有的量,为什么我要用我的管理才能纠结于用那些我们只能拥有的20%去和100%对抗呢,但是我们对此仍然抱有兴趣因为中国和印度的人民在今后的二十年里会过的更好。

Source: BRK Annual Meeting 2010 Boodell Notes

Time: 2010

来源:2010年BRK年会Boodell笔记

时间:2010年

How large is the universe of companies whose intrinsic value you know? Why invest in South Korea or China?

在这么多的公司里你了解多少它们的内在价值?在韩国或者中国投资的原因是什么?

WB: Our immediate decision is whether we can figure it out. We are thought to be rude sometimes, when really we are just being polite in not wasting someone’s time. We know very early in a conversation whether what someone is talking about is actionable. We don’t worry about stuff we miss. We know there are many things that we won’t know enough about when we finish thinking about it, so we throw it out. We make a decision in five minutes. We know about a lot of industries, and there are some things we don’t understand. We like to expand our universe of knowledge. If we can’t make a decision in five minutes, we can’t learn enough in five months. If we get a call, with a business for sale or I am reading a paper or 10-K [annual company SEC filing], we will move right then if there’s a big difference between price and value.

CM:我们当机立断的基础是我们能否算出它们的内在价值。有时候我们也想简单粗暴一点,消息,因为有时候我们的礼貌只是为了不想浪费某些人的时间,在谈判的时候我们很早就能知道对方所说的是不是有建设性,我们不担心我们所错失的东西,因为我们知道有很多这样的东西即使我们想到头也不能充分了解。所以我们坦然放弃。对于工业我们所知甚多,但这一领域仍然有我们不了解的地方,我们非常乐意拓展我们的知识面。如果我们不能在五分钟内做出决定,这说明我们要学的东西五个月都学不完。如果我们接到谈生意的,而且这单生意物有所值,我们就会立马行动。

CM: We can make a lot of decisions about a lot of things very fast and very easily, and we are unusual in that. The reason is that there is such an enormous amount of things we don’t look at. If you don’t do star- tups, you blot a lot of complexity out of your life. What we found out is that there are still a lot of things to look at and that are available, even if we filter out all those things.

CW:我们对于好多事情所做的决定都很果断,这对于我们来说不寻常,这么做的理由是有很多事情我们没有时间去顾及。如果你不创业,你就丢掉了很多生活中的可能性。我们所得出的结论是即使你瞻前顾后的过滤掉了许多,机会也仍然有的是。

WB: There are a lot of giveaways in the first sentence or two. We waste a lot of time, but we waste it on things we want to waste it on.

WB:这些话夹带不少私货,我们是浪费了不少时间,但我们确实是在值得浪费的东西上浪费时间。

Source: BRK Annual Meeting 2008 Boodell Notes

Time: 2008

来源:2008年BRK年会Boodell笔记

时间:2008

Investing in Brazil?

在巴西投资怎么样?

Our problem with many markets is that we have to put out a lot of money because we’re so big. We have to invest hundreds of millions of dollars, which really narrows the companies and countries we can look at. In the case of PetroChina, the biggest company in the world’s most populous country, we were only able to invest $400 million.

面对如此众多的市场我们所面对的一个问题是基于我们的规模我们需要投入上亿资金,这缩小了我们选择的范围。例如中石油的这单业务,这是世界上人口多的国家里的公司,我们投资了四亿美元。

In Brazil, there’s a great beer company a friend ran and we should have invested in it. He’s a great manager. Brazil wouldn’t be off limits, but we would have to be able to invest a lot of money in a good business we can understand at a good price. And it would have to be cheaper than a comparable U.S. company, to compensate for the extra risk and our relative lack of knowledge about the market.

在巴西,我们的一个朋友管理着当地的一个很大的啤酒公司,他也是个不错的管理者,巴西政府的限制也少,但是我们对此需要投入大量资金,因为投资好生意需要好价钱,相比投资本土公司已经算少的了,为了规避额外的风险和弥补市场知识的相对缺乏我们需要付出多一些。

Source: BRK Annual Meeting 2006 Tilson Notes

Time: 2006

来源:2006年BRK年会Tilson笔记

时间:2006

Investing in Russia?

在俄罗斯投资怎么样?

In 1998, via our ownership in Salomon Brothers, we were in the oil business and drilled for oil in Siberia. They were happy to have us drill, but when it came time to take the oil out, it was harder. Given that experience, [we won’t be rushing back to invest in Russia].

1998年的时候,通过我们在Salomon公司的股权,我们成功在西伯利亚的石油生意上查了一手,他们也很高兴我们的参与,但当石油开采到枯竭的时候就麻烦了,因此我们以后不会上赶着往俄罗斯投资了

About three years ago, I had breakfast in Sun Valley with Mikhail Khodorkovsky [the former CEO of Yukos], who was considering a listing on the New York Stock Exchange. He’s now in jail and Yukos is in bankruptcy with tax claims. It’s a little hard to develop a lot of confidence that [Russia] has changed vis-a-vis its views toward capital, especially outside investors and capital.

大约三年前,我跟Yukos的前任CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky吃了个早点,他说他想在美国证交所上市,但是他现在进去了,因他偷税漏税导致破产,对俄罗斯这个市场建立信心总是很难,因为他们在当面锣对面鼓检查资产问题的时候总会出现各种问题,尤其是涉及到海外投资的时候。

[CM: [This reminds me of a story that ends:] “If they ever do find any oil, that old man will steal it.” I’m afraid we have the same problem today in many countries with oil.]

CM:这让我想起了一个故事的结局:“你一找到石油,就会出来个老大哥把他偷走”即使在现在的其他国家一旦涉及到石油问题同样的隐忧仍然存在。

Charlie, didn’t we have the livelihood of our guys threatened [in Russia]? We sent guys to get the [oil-drilling] equipment and they were told that not only would they not get the equipment, but if they tried, the guys wouldn’t get out either. It wasn’t that long ago.

Charlie,你还记得我们那些以此为生的伙计在那边受到的威胁吗?我们派了人过去取回我们的钻油设备,结果老毛子不仅不给设备还说如果再敢要的话你们也回不去了,这还是不久之前的事呢。

Source: BRK Annual Meeting 2006 Tilson Notes

Time: 2006

来源:2006年BRK年会Tilson笔记

时间:2006

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